Thursday, April 20, 2017

The Gold to Silver Divergence

This was a holiday-shortened week, due to Good Friday, and we are posting this Monday evening due to today being a holiday in much of the world.

Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and the price of the dollar in terms of honest money can be easily calculated. The point of this Report is to look into the market to understand the fundamentals of supply and demand. This can’t necessarily tell you what the price will do tomorrow. However, it tells you where the price should be, if physical metal were to clear based on supply and demand.

Of course, two factors make this very interesting. One is that the speculators use leverage, and they can move the price around. At least for a while. The other is that the fundamentals change. There is no guarantee that the prices of the metals will reach the fundamental price of a given day. Think of the fundamentals as gravity, not the strongest force in the system but inexorable, tugging every day.

This week, the fundamentals of both metals moved, though not together. We will take a look at that below, but first, the price and ratio charts.

The Prices of Gold and Silver


Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It didn’t move much this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price


For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price


The scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) is in a gentle rising trend for about six months. This week, the cobasis was down slightly. Not a surprise given the (relatively) big price move of +$33. Nor does it appear to break the trend.

Our calculated fundamental price of gold is at $1,301, just above the market price.

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

In silver, it’s much harder to say that there is an uptrend in the cobasis. Our indicator of scarcity is at the same level it was in October. Back then, the price of silver was $17.60 and on Thursday it was just about 90 cents higher.

The fundamental price back then was just under $15. Now it’s just under $16.50. This happens to be down about 40 cents this week.

With the fundamental of gold rising, and that of silver falling, it’s not surprising that the fundamental gold-silver ratio is up to a bit over 79.


- Source, Keith Weiner via the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, April 14, 2017

Trump's Political Pivot And A Weaker Dollar Drive Gold Higher?


Those of you who voted for Trump as a vote not to elect Hillary have ended up with “Hillary.” Those of you voted for Hillary, and thought you lost, have ended up in many respects with a surrogate for Hillary. It took less than 12 weeks since the inauguration for Trump to adopt the stance of a true Washington politician. This is where the “elected” official pivots away from the public interest and toward the interests of the Deep State: Big oil, big defense, big healthcare and, of course, Too Big To Fail Wall Street. Congratulations Donald. You’ve passed the Beltway Test. Welcome to “The Club.”

Of course, you are “blind” if you didn’t think this would happen once Trump took office and let Hillary, her gang of criminals and the Clinton Slush Fund Foundation off the hook after threatening her with prison during the election debates.

Anti-gold apologists will attribute the remarkable move higher in the price of gold this week to the heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and the U.S. over Syria plus the North Korea situation. While this might have had some influence on the price move in gold, the primary drivers are economic, financial and structural.

By “structural” we mean the quiet implementation of a digital gold accumulation system between Shanghai, Dubai and Europe. In China, this system will let the public buy a “digital” form of gold in tiny increments and go into participating banks and take possession of that gold. Rory Hall has presented two important interviews on this topic on The Daily Coin that merit attention on this topic: Gold, China, Trump and Economic Collapse, with Ken Shortgen, and China Moves 30% More Funds Into Physical Gold, with Jeff Brown.

While geopolitical and economic factors are pushing the price of gold higher, the extreme dislocation between the western Central Bank short position in gold via several different forms of paper gold and the amount of available physical gold to deliver into buyers’ hands is going to move gold in a way that will shock and awe everyone except maybe the hardiest gold “bugs.” The two interviews posted above will help explain why.

Finally, as we presented here after Trump was elected, a newly implemented weak dollar policy will springboard the price of gold higher, which is what we witnessed yesterday after Trump affirmed that his administration favors taking the dollar lower in an inevitably failed attempt to revive the competitiveness of U.S. exports.

- Source, Silver Doctors

Monday, April 10, 2017

The Biggest Stock Bubble In U.S. History

Please note, many will argue that the p/e ratio on the S&P 500 was higher in 1999 than it is now. However, there’s two problems with the comparison. First, when there is no “e,” price does not matter. Many of the tech stocks in the SPX in 1999 did not have any earnings and never had a chance to produce earnings because many of them went out of business. However – and I’ve been saying this for quite some time and I’m finally seeing a few others make the same assertion – if you adjust the current earnings of the companies in SPX using the GAAP accounting standards in force in 1999, the current earnings in aggregate would likely be cut at least in half. And thus, the current p/e ratio expressed in 1999 earnings terms likely would be at least as high as the p/e ratio in 1999, if not higher. (Changes to GAAP have made it easier for companies to create non-cash earnings, reclassify and capitalize expenses, stretch out depreciation and pension funding costs, etc).


We talk about the tech bubble that fomented in the late 1990’s that resulted in an 85% (roughly) decline on the NASDAQ. Currently the five highest valued stocks by market cap are tech stocks: AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN and FB. Combined, these five stocks make-up nearly 10% of the total value of the entire stock market.

Money from the public poured into ETFs at record pace in February. The majority of it into S&P 500 ETFs which then have to put that money proportionately by market value into each of the S&P 500 stocks. Thus when cash pours into SPX funds like this, a large rise in the the top five stocks by market cap listed above becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The price rise in these stocks has nothing remotely to do with fundamentals. Take Microsoft, for example (MSFT). Last Friday the pom-poms were waving on Fox Business because MSFT hit an all-time high. This is in spite of the fact that MSFT’s revenues dropped 8.8% from 2015 to 2016 and its gross margin plunged 13.2%. So much for fundamentals.

In addition to the onslaught of retail cash moving blindly into stocks, margin debt on the NYSE hit an all-time high in February. Both the cash flow and margin debt statistics are flashing a big red warning signal, as this only occurs when the public becomes blind to risk and and bet that stocks can only go up. As I’ve said before, this is by far the most dangerous stock market in my professional lifetime (32 years, not including my high years spent reading my father’s Wall Street Journal everyday and playing penny stocks).

Perhaps the loudest bell ringing and signaling a top is the market’s valuation of Tesla. On Monday the market cap of Tesla ($49 billion) surpassed Ford’s market cap ($45 billion) despite the fact that Tesla deliver 79 thousand cars in 2016 while Ford delivered 2.6 million. “Electric Jeff” (as a good friend of mine calls Elon Musk, in reference to Jeff Bezos) was on Twitter Monday taunting short sellers. At best his behavior can be called “gauche.” Musk, similar to Bezos, is a masterful stock operator. Jordan Belfort (the “Wolf of Wall Street”) was a small-time dime store thief compared to Musk and Bezos.

Tesla has never made money and never will make money. Next to Amazon, it’s the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history. Without the massive tax credits given to the first 200,000 buyers of Tesla vehicles, the Company would likely be out of business by now.

Once again the public has been seduced into throwing money blindly at anything that moves in the stock market, chasing dreams of risk-free wealth. 99% of them will never take money off the table and will lose everything when this bubble bursts. And only the biggest stock bubble in history is capable of enabling operators like Musk and Bezos to reap extraordinary wealth at the expense of the public. The bell is ringing, perhaps Musk unwittingly rang it on Monday with hubris. The only question that remains pertains to timing


Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Bank of America Says You Should Buy… Gold?!


What would compel one of the largest banks in the world to give the advice that people should buy gold to protect themselves from the coming crash? What is the "Icarus Trade"? What is the "Great Fall"?

- Source

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