Thursday, April 20, 2017

The Gold to Silver Divergence

This was a holiday-shortened week, due to Good Friday, and we are posting this Monday evening due to today being a holiday in much of the world.

Gold and silver went up the dollar went down, +$33 and +$0.53 -64mg gold and -.05g silver. The prices of the metals in dollar terms are readily available, and the price of the dollar in terms of honest money can be easily calculated. The point of this Report is to look into the market to understand the fundamentals of supply and demand. This can’t necessarily tell you what the price will do tomorrow. However, it tells you where the price should be, if physical metal were to clear based on supply and demand.

Of course, two factors make this very interesting. One is that the speculators use leverage, and they can move the price around. At least for a while. The other is that the fundamentals change. There is no guarantee that the prices of the metals will reach the fundamental price of a given day. Think of the fundamentals as gravity, not the strongest force in the system but inexorable, tugging every day.

This week, the fundamentals of both metals moved, though not together. We will take a look at that below, but first, the price and ratio charts.

The Prices of Gold and Silver

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. It didn’t move much this week.

The Ratio of the Gold Price to the Silver Price

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and cobasis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and cobasis in red.

Here is the gold graph.

The Gold Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

The scarcity (i.e. the cobasis, the red line) is in a gentle rising trend for about six months. This week, the cobasis was down slightly. Not a surprise given the (relatively) big price move of +$33. Nor does it appear to break the trend.

Our calculated fundamental price of gold is at $1,301, just above the market price.

Now let’s look at silver.

The Silver Basis and Cobasis and the Dollar Price

In silver, it’s much harder to say that there is an uptrend in the cobasis. Our indicator of scarcity is at the same level it was in October. Back then, the price of silver was $17.60 and on Thursday it was just about 90 cents higher.

The fundamental price back then was just under $15. Now it’s just under $16.50. This happens to be down about 40 cents this week.

With the fundamental of gold rising, and that of silver falling, it’s not surprising that the fundamental gold-silver ratio is up to a bit over 79.

- Source, Keith Weiner via the Sprott Money Blog

Friday, April 14, 2017

Trump's Political Pivot And A Weaker Dollar Drive Gold Higher?

Those of you who voted for Trump as a vote not to elect Hillary have ended up with “Hillary.” Those of you voted for Hillary, and thought you lost, have ended up in many respects with a surrogate for Hillary. It took less than 12 weeks since the inauguration for Trump to adopt the stance of a true Washington politician. This is where the “elected” official pivots away from the public interest and toward the interests of the Deep State: Big oil, big defense, big healthcare and, of course, Too Big To Fail Wall Street. Congratulations Donald. You’ve passed the Beltway Test. Welcome to “The Club.”

Of course, you are “blind” if you didn’t think this would happen once Trump took office and let Hillary, her gang of criminals and the Clinton Slush Fund Foundation off the hook after threatening her with prison during the election debates.

Anti-gold apologists will attribute the remarkable move higher in the price of gold this week to the heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and the U.S. over Syria plus the North Korea situation. While this might have had some influence on the price move in gold, the primary drivers are economic, financial and structural.

By “structural” we mean the quiet implementation of a digital gold accumulation system between Shanghai, Dubai and Europe. In China, this system will let the public buy a “digital” form of gold in tiny increments and go into participating banks and take possession of that gold. Rory Hall has presented two important interviews on this topic on The Daily Coin that merit attention on this topic: Gold, China, Trump and Economic Collapse, with Ken Shortgen, and China Moves 30% More Funds Into Physical Gold, with Jeff Brown.

While geopolitical and economic factors are pushing the price of gold higher, the extreme dislocation between the western Central Bank short position in gold via several different forms of paper gold and the amount of available physical gold to deliver into buyers’ hands is going to move gold in a way that will shock and awe everyone except maybe the hardiest gold “bugs.” The two interviews posted above will help explain why.

Finally, as we presented here after Trump was elected, a newly implemented weak dollar policy will springboard the price of gold higher, which is what we witnessed yesterday after Trump affirmed that his administration favors taking the dollar lower in an inevitably failed attempt to revive the competitiveness of U.S. exports.

- Source, Silver Doctors

Monday, April 10, 2017

The Biggest Stock Bubble In U.S. History

Please note, many will argue that the p/e ratio on the S&P 500 was higher in 1999 than it is now. However, there’s two problems with the comparison. First, when there is no “e,” price does not matter. Many of the tech stocks in the SPX in 1999 did not have any earnings and never had a chance to produce earnings because many of them went out of business. However – and I’ve been saying this for quite some time and I’m finally seeing a few others make the same assertion – if you adjust the current earnings of the companies in SPX using the GAAP accounting standards in force in 1999, the current earnings in aggregate would likely be cut at least in half. And thus, the current p/e ratio expressed in 1999 earnings terms likely would be at least as high as the p/e ratio in 1999, if not higher. (Changes to GAAP have made it easier for companies to create non-cash earnings, reclassify and capitalize expenses, stretch out depreciation and pension funding costs, etc).

We talk about the tech bubble that fomented in the late 1990’s that resulted in an 85% (roughly) decline on the NASDAQ. Currently the five highest valued stocks by market cap are tech stocks: AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN and FB. Combined, these five stocks make-up nearly 10% of the total value of the entire stock market.

Money from the public poured into ETFs at record pace in February. The majority of it into S&P 500 ETFs which then have to put that money proportionately by market value into each of the S&P 500 stocks. Thus when cash pours into SPX funds like this, a large rise in the the top five stocks by market cap listed above becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The price rise in these stocks has nothing remotely to do with fundamentals. Take Microsoft, for example (MSFT). Last Friday the pom-poms were waving on Fox Business because MSFT hit an all-time high. This is in spite of the fact that MSFT’s revenues dropped 8.8% from 2015 to 2016 and its gross margin plunged 13.2%. So much for fundamentals.

In addition to the onslaught of retail cash moving blindly into stocks, margin debt on the NYSE hit an all-time high in February. Both the cash flow and margin debt statistics are flashing a big red warning signal, as this only occurs when the public becomes blind to risk and and bet that stocks can only go up. As I’ve said before, this is by far the most dangerous stock market in my professional lifetime (32 years, not including my high years spent reading my father’s Wall Street Journal everyday and playing penny stocks).

Perhaps the loudest bell ringing and signaling a top is the market’s valuation of Tesla. On Monday the market cap of Tesla ($49 billion) surpassed Ford’s market cap ($45 billion) despite the fact that Tesla deliver 79 thousand cars in 2016 while Ford delivered 2.6 million. “Electric Jeff” (as a good friend of mine calls Elon Musk, in reference to Jeff Bezos) was on Twitter Monday taunting short sellers. At best his behavior can be called “gauche.” Musk, similar to Bezos, is a masterful stock operator. Jordan Belfort (the “Wolf of Wall Street”) was a small-time dime store thief compared to Musk and Bezos.

Tesla has never made money and never will make money. Next to Amazon, it’s the biggest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history. Without the massive tax credits given to the first 200,000 buyers of Tesla vehicles, the Company would likely be out of business by now.

Once again the public has been seduced into throwing money blindly at anything that moves in the stock market, chasing dreams of risk-free wealth. 99% of them will never take money off the table and will lose everything when this bubble bursts. And only the biggest stock bubble in history is capable of enabling operators like Musk and Bezos to reap extraordinary wealth at the expense of the public. The bell is ringing, perhaps Musk unwittingly rang it on Monday with hubris. The only question that remains pertains to timing

Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Bank of America Says You Should Buy… Gold?!

What would compel one of the largest banks in the world to give the advice that people should buy gold to protect themselves from the coming crash? What is the "Icarus Trade"? What is the "Great Fall"?

- Source

Friday, March 31, 2017

ALERT: Secret Hidden Silver Hoard... 2.75 Billion Ounces!

SECRET SILVER HOARD! In 1943 the US Government secretly transferred 2.75 Billion ounces of silver to make the first atomic bomb! And they had to tear down the facility to get the silver in 1992-94!! You can't make this stuff up!

Monday, March 27, 2017

Gold & Silver Manipulation: The Biggest Financial Crime In History

According to the mainstream financial media (MFM), the biggest financial frauds in history are the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, with roughly $20 billion in net investor losses, and the Bank State rigging of LIBOR, which resulted in 16 guilty banks paying $35 billion in fines, which supposedly equated to their theft.

The MFM have conveniently ignored a far larger financial crime that has been perpetrated for 37 years and counting, and that has netted its orchestrators more than $1,000,000,000,000.00 ($1 trillion) in stolen profits. This crime is so powerful that it can produce fraudulent proceeds of $1+ billion on demand and in minutes, making it unique in the annals of theft. It is a crime that has been committed literally thousands of times since 1980, and is now being committed in the most blatant and brazen manner ever. This crime is already 285 times bigger than the LIBOR scandal, and 500 times bigger than Madoff’s swindle. It is, in fact, the largest, most destructive financial crime in history.

As this immensely profitable fraud has been perpetrated, the MFM have bombarded the populace with a propaganda campaign that smears and mis-characterizes gold. Rising precious metals prices are always presented as being ominous, negative and inimical to the people, while declining prices are consistently placed in a favorable light. This propaganda has been carefully crafted and timed so that when massive, coordinated price attacks occur, market observers actually view them as positive market developments and move on, in the belief that all is well and there is nothing to see.

Whenever true prices start to exert themselves, the MFM go into overdrive to demonize and discredit gold. Truly disgracing themselves, which is increasingly difficult for them to do given the depths to which their fake financial journalism has plunged, they have actually published articles calling gold a “Pet Rock,” and in another instance, a “Ponzi scheme.” By the latter’s idiotic logic, all natural elements and tangible goods are Ponzi schemes, too. If you listen to them, milk and eggs are criminal conspiracies also. They know it’s absurd, but they throw the spaghetti against the wall anyhow, to flog the agenda and please their Deep State owners.

Last week, Bloomberg Magazine ran a cover story about a two-bit nobody smuggling meaningless quantities of gold as if this were the gravest threat to humanity in the 21st Century. It was yet another effort to make the gold market look seedy, shady and dirty. The lengths to which they go in order to slam precious metals prove that this is a very important Deep State agenda. And it is, because its purpose is to deflect attention away from the Deep State’s unprecedented financial criminality.

In the late 1970s, oil barons Bunker and Lamar Hunt became interested in the favorable fundamentals of silver. They steadily bought the metal, ramping up its price. The Bank State went short against the Hunts, in size. But buying demand persisted, and by January, 1980, silver had reached a record $49.45 per ounce ($147.68 in today’s dollars) and the Bank State was choking on massive paper losses.

The Bank State did what it always does when the chips are down: it lied, cheated and stole. First, it ordered the MFM to character assassinate the Hunts by labeling them greedy profiteers who were attempting to corner the silver market at what would be an exorbitant cost to society. Which was a deliberate lie. Later evidence proved that the Hunts bought silver based upon extensive quantitative analysis that showed it to be significantly undervalued, just as others throughout history have been attracted to undervalued assets. There was no evidence at all that the Hunts were trying to corner the silver market. But the media onslaught overwhelmed the truth, and set the stage for Act 2.

In Act 2, the Bank State ordered its’ captured, bribed CFTC regulators to change silver futures rules so as to force the Hunts to liquidate their positions. Predictably, silver’s price plunged from $49.45 to $10.80 between January and March, 1980, as a result of the out-of-the-blue, “liquidation only” CFTC mandate. This wiped out the Hunts and bailed out the Bank State of its massive losses, which, of course, was the corrupt point of the exercise.

In the process, the Bank State saw first-hand the enormous profit potential inherent in precious metals price manipulation. And it raced to invent a new form of alchemy that would enable it to make those potential profits go exponential: the transmutation of printed paper and costless, ethereal computer digits into what they would say were the equivalent of physical gold and silver. Honest precious metals price discovery died when the Hunts were cheated and fake gold and silver were invented. The precious metals futures market has been an organized crime scene ever since.

Prior to the Deep State’s successful overthrow and corruption of the metals market, gold and silver reached 1980 highs of $850 and $49.45, respectively. We regard those as legitimate prices that actually would have been exceeded if the free market had prevailed. Fundamental forces were enormously bullish for metals at that time, and have been so ever since.

Using the U.S. government’s inflation statistics, which are deliberately understated and therefore conservative, today’s prices would be $2,510.55 for gold and $147.68 for silver. Therefore, current fake gold and silver prices are roughly $1,300.00 and $130.00 per troy ounce beneath their 1980 inflation adjusted highs, respectively. This is extraordinary given the radical deterioration of monetary, financial, fiscal, economic and geopolitical conditions since 1980. Prices should now be far above the 1980 inflation-adjusted highs, not far below them.

With 5.8 billion ounces of owned physical gold in the world, the $1,300 per ounce price oppression results in an aggregate gold market undervaluation of $7.54 trillion. And with 20.5 billion ounces of owned physical silver in the forms of jewelry, silverware, coins, bars and rounds, the $130 per ounce price oppression amounts to an additional market undervaluation of $2.67 trillion. Combined, this totals $10.21 trillion that has been stolen from the owners of gold and silver worldwide as a result of the Deep State’s price manipulation fraud. This $10.21 trillion amount is an absolute minimum, because for dozens of objective, quantifiable reasons, gold and silver prices should exceed their 1980 inflation adjusted highs by at least two and up to four times. Therefore, the true cost to the global owners of gold and silver is actually in the range of $20 to $40 trillion. The people have paid a staggering price for the Deep State’s precious metals crime spree, as there is no fraud in history whose financial impact even come close to this. Yet the corrupt MFM doesn’t say a word.

From 2009 through 2013, former Goldman Sachs partner Gary Gensler, protégé of (among others) Robert Rubin (former U.S. Treasury Secretary and now Chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, the embodiment and epitome of the Deep State) and Larry Summers (also a former U.S. Treasury Secretary (put there by his mentor, Robert Rubin), Group of 30 member and a leading Deep State cash elimination mouthpiece), was the Chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). During virtually his entire tenure, the CFTC conducted a so-called investigation into silver market price manipulation. In 2013, the CFTC closed the investigation, saying it had not found any improprieties whatsoever, not even one. According to them, the silver market was squeaky clean.

In 2016, completely without any CFTC involvement, Deutsche Bank admitted that it and numerous other major, international, SIFI (Significantly Important Financial Institution, aka, Too Big to Fail) banks had massively manipulated the silver market for years, including during the entire duration of the CFTC’s fake investigation. A few days later, Deutsche Bank admitted that it and numerous other SIFI banks had also rigged the gold market.

Gensler left the CFTC in early 2014, and went to work for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. In 2015, he was named Chief Financial Officer of her campaign. A Clinton victory was fully expected, and it was understood that Clinton would name Gensler Secretary of the Treasury. (Now do you see how this works?) In that role, he would have been far more helpful to the Deep State than he was in his CFTC role of protecting their $1 trillion precious metals fraud from being exposed or interfered with. In the Treasury Secretary position, the top marching order from his Deep State masters would have been simple and clear: get cash eliminated once and for all, and we will make you richer than you can ever imagine. He would have been all over it.

Cash elimination is the Deep State’s upcoming, Main Event. They will steal far more by eliminating cash than they have stolen to date by all their other frauds, combined. While the rigging of the precious metals markets is currently the largest financial crime in history, it will be left in the dust when they come to steal the dollars, Euros and other fiat currencies that they are working to corral in their monetary prisons. They lurch from one record to another, on the bent and hurting backs of the people.

Trump’s victory threatens to slow down the implementation of their cash elimination agenda, and this is why they are incensed, and will do literally anything to get rid of him. Trump is brave, and in extreme danger the 86,400 seconds of every day. There have never in history been richer, greedier, or more power-hungry character assassins than the Deep State elite. The silver lining is that their evil is now so cancerous and metastasized that it has driven them completely insane, and the insane have a way of destroying themselves before they can destroy the rest of us.

Implications: We know for an absolute fact that precious metals prices are manipulated. (The evidence is absolutely overwhelming, and we would like to offer special thanks to GATA (and now Deutsche Bank) for proving it without a shadow of doubt over many years’ worth of tireless work.) Current prices of gold and silver are therefore fake, and in our view, far below what they would be in an honest market. When the Deep State Crime Syndicate loses control over prices, which could result from any one of a large number of likely developments, true prices will be re-established, a process that was occurring in 1980 and again in 2011 before being sabotaged both times. As fake prices are crushed and honest ones return, a global “herd” buying phenomenon could develop, as has happened in the past. This would lead to significant shortages of available physical metals and a meaningful increase in premiums. History has been clear that when it comes to precious metals, it is always best to buy in halcyon times, particularly if one can do so at a good price. We are not registered investment advisors, and are not providing financial advice. We are simply sharing with you our thoughts, which are born of extensive, independent research. Thank you for taking the time to read this article, good luck and all the best to you.

Friday, March 24, 2017

The West Is Collapsing As The East Ascends

It seems absurd that Asia is willing and able to build high-speed “bullet” trains to connect large population centers while the United States struggles with an antiquated Amtrak rail system often beset with service interruptions and lethal accidents. The truth of the matter is that the major U.S. metropolitan areas are beset with massive loads of debt, including a ticking-time debt-bomb in the form of several trillion dollars in unfunded public pension funds.

The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor is a major infrastructure project that India is developing with Japan. The project will upgrade nine mega industrial zones as well as the country’s high-speed freight line, three ports, and six airports. A 4,000 MW power plant and a six-lane intersection-free expressway will also be constructed, which will connect the country’s political and financial capitals. – The Daily Coin

The 24 Mega City project underscores the economic, political and cultural contrast between the eastern and western hemisphere countries, with the sun setting in the west and rising in the east. The west is mired in a catastrophic web of Government-heavy economies that exist on the life support of trillions in money printing and debt issuance. True, some countries like China have relatively high debt levels but they are offsetting that form of fiat currency debasement with massive gold accumulation. The heart of the problem is highlighted by the graphic below (click to enlarge):

The budget for the U.S. Government will primarily be spent on social security, defense, medicare/medicaid and interest on the Government’s debt. Those five items will burn more two-thirds of the Government’s budgeted expenditures in Fiscal Year 2017.

But don’t bother asking how the Government plans on paying for that. The funds will come from oldest forms of currency debasement: money printing and debt issuance. And Trump’s proposed spending agenda will accelerate the growth rate of both .

It’s amazing that the U.S. Government seems to have unlimited funds available to spend on guns, bullets and surveillance of the citizenry. Ranked in order of expenditures, The U.S. spends more on its military than the next 14 highest ranked countries. “On the books,” the U.S. spent $597 billion in 2015. That was 4x more than China and 9x more than Russia (source: International Institute for Strategic Studies).

While the west, led by the United States, advances its collapse with rampant currency debasement and unbridled imperialism, the east is investing its resources in the future – in the advancement of its civilization. Perhaps the hallmark of this contrast is best represented by the flow of physical gold from west to east.

- Source, Sprott Money Blog, Read the Full Article Here

Saturday, March 18, 2017

Clif High Warns Bitcoin, and the COMEX Are All Screaming Hyperinflation!

Clif High's web bot ALTA report, the price of Bitcoin, and the hard data showing unimaginable manipulation of silver on the Comex are all screaming the same thing: Hyperinflation is coming, and one day soon, the US Dollar will have very little purchasing power.

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

VAULT7 SHOCKER: Why Obama May Go to Prison

The Wikileaks VAULT7 Documents Will ROCK the Deep State CIA to its Very Core – and the Evidence the Leaks Provide Will Likely Lead Barack Obama Directly to a Federal Prison Cell…

- Source, Silver Doctors

Friday, March 10, 2017

Dave Rubin - The Left Has Lost Its Way, They Constantly Need New Enemies

Dave Rubin sits down with Alex Jones of Infowars, in an unscripted interview. They discuss the insanity of the modern day left and how they have lost their way. They are now the racist, they are now the bigots.

Monday, March 6, 2017

Is Inflation Really Back? Which Domino Will Topple First?

Is Inflation on the rise? John Stepek a career writer on business and finance thinks so. According to him Inflation is taking hold virtually everywhere. Even in the U.S. inflation is rising fast & has been in real estate, markets, healthcare, tuition and more.

Savvy Hedge fund mangers believe the Fed is behind the curve and have positioned themselves in precious metals as they brace for inflation. Please read the rest here: Inflation is back – which domino will topple first?

- Source, Money Week

Monday, February 27, 2017

Ron Paul - Gold Has Never Failed as Money Throughout History

It may be difficult for some people to believe, but not too long ago, gold was the international medium of exchange. It facilitated economic growth like the world has never seen. Contrary to government propaganda, gold did not fail as money. It was government itself that systematically separated Americans from sound money. We discuss today on Myth-Busters!

Friday, February 24, 2017

How to Store Silver Bars and Coins at Home

Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, GoldSilver

There are lots of reasons to buy silver—it’s a real asset, the coins are beautiful, it will likely outperform gold (and probably by a long shot), and it’s more affordable. But that affordability comes with a catch.

Once you start to accumulate, you quickly realize that silver requires a lot more storage space than gold. It’s relatively easy to hide some gold coins in a sock drawer or cookie jar, but those hiding places are impractical for the same dollar amount of silver.

So how do we store our silver bullion both efficiently and safely? And should it be stored at home anyway? This article has some potential solutions for those investors that are stacking silver…

Storing Silver Bullion at Home

Everyone should keep some silver (and gold) in a place that is easily and immediately accessible. One advantage bullion offers is its high liquidity in a period of crisis—no worries about bank closures, lack of access to funds, or internet problems.

So, if you have some bullion close by, you have the ability to fight through a crisis. On the other hand, if your silver is two days away or time-consuming to get to, its use as an emergency asset has diminished.

As I pointed out in my book, Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver, “I believe everyone should have gold and silver in his or her own private possession, where you can lay your hands on it, because they are one of the few financial assets that can be completely private and not part of the financial system.”

This doesn’t mean you should keep it inside your house. It means you want some of it readily accessible in an emergency, whether that emergency be a personal one or on a national scale. Here are the three factors to consider when storing silver at home:

1. Space and Weight Requirements

At today’s prices, dollar for dollar, you get roughly 70 times more ounces of silver than gold. On top of that, most silver is a lot less dense than gold. In fact, pure silver is 84% larger in volume than pure gold. Add those two facts together and it means that silver takes up as much as 128 times more space than gold for the same dollar value!

Here’s a couple practical examples of the difference: A one-ounce American Gold Eagle coin is about the same size as a U.S. $.50 piece, and can fit in your pants pocket along with your other change, keys, and cell phone. But, a one-ounce American Silver Eagle coin is significantly larger—your pants pocket would have to hold 70 of them and they’d weigh almost 5 pounds. The same is true with larger amounts: you can hold $50,000 worth of gold in one hand—but it would take 10 large shoe boxes to hold the same dollar amount of silver!

The difference in weight is also significant: $50,000 worth of gold weighs about 2.6 pounds—but the same value of silver would weigh about 189 pounds!

In other words, whether you’re dealing with coins or bars, you’ll need a lot more space to store silver bullion. It’s also more difficult, expensive, and cumbersome to transport.

The most popular form of silver is the one-ounce American Eagle coin. And the most popular order size is what’s called a monster box—a case of 500, 1-ounce coins, separated into 25 tubes of 20 coins each. A monster box measures 15” X 8.5” X 4.5”. Here’s how big that is:

A monster box of Canadian Silver Maple Leaf coins varies slightly (instead of 25 tubes of 20 coins, it contains 20 tubes of 25 coins), and measures: 10” X 8” X 5”.

If you’re stacking bars, the most popular size is the 100-ounce silver bar. The dimensions are roughly the same for most bars—here’s what one measures from the Royal Canadian Mint: 7.2” X 3.2” X 0.8”. It’s roughly the size of three or four large Hershey bars stacked on top of each other.

2. Personal Comfort Level

How much bullion are you and your confidant comfortable keeping in your home?

Your two biggest risks are theft and natural disaster. Here’s a checklist of questions to ask yourself about storing bullion at home…

• Does more than one person know you own precious metals? If so, who might they tell, even if it’s innocent? Do your kids know? Depending on their age and maturity, could they talk?

• Is your income or assets high enough to make you a natural target? Do you work in the public eye? Have you talked positively about gold and silver, including on social media?

• Do you have an alarm monitoring system? This may not prevent a theft but would ideally give you an immediate police response.

• Are your hiding spots clever enough? To answer this, “think like a thief;” how long before a persistent and desperate robber finds your bullion?

• If you use a safe, is it fireproof? What level of protection does your safe have against other natural disasters?

• Is your safe small enough that a thief could walk out with it? If it’s secured to the floor in some way, how would you respond if a thief found it and demanded you open it?

• Do you have some decoy bullion or valuables?

• Is your bullion hidden so well that you couldn’t find it if you forgot where it was? Or your heirs would have a hard time finding it?

• Keep in mind that insuring your home-stored bullion is costly, and most home insurance plans may not cover the full value if silver rises a lot in price. Further, it breaks the golden rule of telling too many people what you have—insurance agents, office staff, corporate offices, appraisers and their staff—and don’t forget that they might tell someone! Insuring your home bullion is a personal decision, but we prefer the privacy.

Indoor storage is practical for small quantities. You can probably think of dozens of places in your home where no one would think to look.

The trick is to hide your bullion in such a way that it isn’t too complicated for you or your heirs to find, but is hard enough for a thief to find. Here’s a few tips on hiding locations (note that some of these come from customer input and are not necessarily what we would recommend)…

3. Hiding Tips

Nothing Obvious: No fake cookie jars, rocks, or carved out books. They’re too common. If you’ve seen your hiding spot in a movie, find another one.

Three Layers Deep: A good rule of thumb is to store your silver three layers deep, since most burglars look for things they can grab and go. For example, a floor safe, covered by floor boards, with carpet and a china cabinet over it.

Safes: A safe is certainly much better than behind some books, but keep in mind that no safe is 100% secure. A safe buys you time, nothing more. If you use a key safe, hide the key separately from the safe. If you use a combination lock, don’t assume you’re immune from robbery—a friend of my father’s had a gun pointed to his wife’s head while they asked him for the combination to his safe.

Another consideration is the weight of the safe. One that weighs, say, 100 pounds, could be moved (i.e., stolen) by one or two burglars with some basic tools like a dolly or straps. A 300-400 pound safe removes theft risk from a single person. Heavier than 500 pounds and you’re immune from most home burglaries, unless there’s a group of them and they have a heavy duty vehicle. Of course, the heavier the safe the more likely you’ll need it delivered and installed, which then tips your hand that you’ve likely got a lot of valuables in the house.

Midnight Gardening: A couple pointers if you bury your gold (the term “midnight gardening” comes from people who bury their gold at night so the digging won’t be noticed)…

• Try a container that is both airtight and waterproof (don’t use a coffee can, since the color on the metal can bleed). If you’re burying a lot of coins separate small piles of them into plastic baggies to avoid scratching.

• Consider how easy or too difficult it is to find. If it’s too easy, a thief could find it. But it it’s too difficult your heirs may have a hard time locating it. Find a place, on property you own, that you’ll always remember but isn’t obvious if someone learns you’ve buried something valuable. It’s probably not a good idea to leave complicated instructions; if you use a “treasure map,” give part of the instructions to one person you trust and the other part to a different confidant.

• Metal detectors can detect up to a depth of about 4 feet.

A related option might be to build a safe in the floor of a storage shed. The advantage here is that you can access your bullion without being seen, day or night.

Home Security Systems: The more metal you have at home, the more you need to consider a security system that comes with both cameras and monitoring. Or consider a nanny cam; they're not expensive.

Firearms: If you store metals at home and have a safe, and IF you feel comfortable having a gun in the house, a firearm might be a way to defend yourself in the event of a break-in while you're home. We don’t necessarily recommend purchasing a firearm, however, as there a number of considerations to keeping a weapon in the house.

Decoys: Consider keeping two safes, one of which is cheap with a few items in it so the thief thinks he got your stash, and then the real one well hidden in a different part of the house with your silver and other valuables.

Diversify: Use more than one hiding spot. But don’t use so many that you forget where they all are!

Should We Use a Bank Safe Deposit Box?

Easy, simple, and relatively inexpensive—those are the advantages to using a safe deposit box at your local bank. But consider the drawbacks…

• Your access is restricted. You can only get to the bullion during regular banking hours. No evening, weekend or holiday access. In fact, during 9/11, some banks were closed for a period of time.

• No insurance against robbery or disaster. Think about the customers whose safe deposit boxes were washed away with the tsunami in Japan in 2011.

• Lack of privacy. If the government or an aggressive attorney comes after you, they’ll thank you for the generous clue you provided them of where some of your assets are stored.

• Silver takes up so much space that you’d likely be forced to pay for a larger box. And it might not be an option at all… a monster box of silver is too big for most any safe bank deposit box.

Remember, one reason we own physical bullion is to protect against the banking system. If you go this route, be aware of the risks and only place a small portion of your metal there.

What About a Private Vault?

Once your stash starts to grow, I recommend you consider private storage. Not only do you run out of space at home but your risk grows as you accumulate more and more metal. You don’t want to be wiped out if something happened to your stash at home.

The keys to professional storage are that your metal be held: 1. Outside the banking system. 2. Fully segregated or allocated in your name, and fully insured. 3. Easy online access.

I’m proud to say that GoldSilver’s program meets all these criteria and more. These are the same vaults Mike and I use. Highly liquid, 100% insured, and can be done online instantaneously. Again, use this option once you have a reasonable amount of bullion stored at or near home, but have reached a point where it would be wise to divvy it up.

The Ideal Solution to Home Storage

The message here is that no storage location is 100% secure (though professional storage is 100% insured). Therefore, the best way for storing silver is to diversify your locations. The more you accumulate, the more you should utilize several methods for storing silver.

Don’t put yourself in a position where you’re left silver-less if something happens to your stash. Silver bullion is a tangible asset that serves as inexpensive insurance against all types of crisis. We’re convinced you’re making a wise decision by owning it. But review your storage methods to determine the best ways to hold on to your silver.

- Source, Gold Silver

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

Recession 2017? Ominous Signs Emerge

According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning. And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one. Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.

One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours. When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now. In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008…

In addition to the decline in hours, Summers has suggested that there are a number of other reasons to believe that a new recession is here…

The fact is that the GDP growth of 4%-5% is not just around the corner. The US most likely slid into recession in the last three months. GDP growth collapsed in 4Q16, with a large portion of the “growth” coming from accounting gimmicks.

Consider the following:

Tax receipts indicate the US is in recession.
Gross private domestic investment indicates were are in a recession.
Retailers are showing that the US consumer is tapped out (see AMZN’s recent miss).
UPS, another economic bellweather, dramatically lowered 2017 forecasts.

To me, even more alarming is the tightening of lending standards. In our debt-based economy, the flow of credit is absolutely critical to economic growth, and when credit starts to get tight that almost always leads to a recession.

So the fact that lending standards have now tightened for medium and large sized firms for six quarters in a row is very bad news. The following comes from Business Insider…

“Although modest over the past couple of quarters, it is still worth noting that this is now the sixth quarter in succession that standards have tightened for large and medium sized firms,” Deutsche Bank economist Jim Reid wrote in a research note to clients.

“This usually only happens in recessions.”

Reid is 100 percent correct on this point. This is precisely the kind of thing that we would expect to see if a new recession was beginning, and if this trend continues it is hard to imagine that the U.S. economy will be able to continue to grow.

And it is interesting to note that job growth at S&P 500 companies has gone negative for the first time since the last recession, and so large firms are definitely starting to feel the pressure.

Simultaneously, lending standards are also tightening up for consumers…

“The most notable tightening in standards though was in consumer loans,” the Fed said. “During the quarter, banks reported an 8.3% net tightening in credit standards for credit cards and 11.6% net tightening for auto loans.”

US consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity and is thus a key driver of growth in the world’s largest economy.

Those numbers for credit cards and auto loans are major red flags.

It is very simple. Tighter credit means less economic activity which means slower economic growth. The U.S. economy grew at a dismal 1.9 percent annual rate during the 4th quarter of 2016, and it would be absolutely no surprise if we end up with a negative number for the first quarter of 2017.

One of the big reasons why lending standards are tightening is because bankruptcies are rising.

As I reported the other day, consumer bankruptcies just rose on a year-over-year basis in back to back months for the first time in almost seven years. Commercial bankruptcies had already been rising on a year-over-year basis throughout 2016, and so the fact that consumer bankruptcies have now joined the party is a very bad sign.

And we have also just learned that real median household income declined in 2016…

Its official! The spectacular Obama/Fed “recovery” produced no increase in real medin household income in 2016 (the last year of Obama’s reign of [economic] error). In fact, real median annual household income in December 2016 ($57,827) was 0.9 percent lower than in December 2015 ($58,356).

Yes, I understand that there is a tremendous amount of optimism out there right now because of Donald Trump.

But the truth is that it is literally going to take some sort of an economic miracle to avoid a recession.

And if a recession is going to happen anyway, the Trump administration should want it to occur as quickly as possible.

You see, if a recession starts a year from now, it will be much more difficult for Trump to blame it on Obama. But if a recession starts right now, he will definitely be able to argue that it happened because of the mess that he inherited from the last administration.

In addition, the sooner the next recession ends the sooner the next recovery can begin. If a recession is still going on during the 2020 campaign, that would be really bad for Trump, but if a recovery is well underway by then that would be really good for his chances.

If you doubt this, just go back and look at the 1984 campaign. After a very difficult recession, the U.S. economy bounced back strongly and Ronald Reagan was able to ride that momentum to an easy victory.

So this may sound very strange to many of you, but the truth is that if a new recession is coming Trump supporters should want it to happen as rapidly as possible.

Unfortunately, once a new recession begins it may not play out like recessions normally do. The U.S. government is 20 trillion dollars in debt, we are in the midst of one of the biggest stock market bubbles in history, and our planet is becoming more unstable with each passing day. So even though Trump is in the White House and Obama is gone, let there be no doubt that a catastrophic economic crisis could literally erupt at any moment. I continue to encourage my readers to do all that they can to get prepared, because those that are prepared in advance will have the best chance of successfully getting through what is coming.

Unfortunately, a lot of people out there seem to believe that all of our problems have somehow evaporated just because Donald Trump is now living in the White House.

That is simply not true, and we all need to be praying for guidance and wisdom for Trump and his team as they prepare to deal with the great challenges that are ahead for our nation.

Friday, February 10, 2017

US Trade Deficit In 2016 Was The Biggest In Four Years

In a report that will be closely watched by Donald Trump, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the US trade deficit in December decreased modestly last December: In the last month of 2016, the US deficit decreased from $45.7 billion in November (revised from $45.2) to $44.3 billion in December, less than the $45 billion expected, as exports increased more than imports.

The goods deficit decreased $1.2 billion in December to $65.7 billion, offset by a services surplus increased $0.3 billion in December to $21.4 billion.

The breakdown: exports of goods and services increased $5.0 billion, or 2.7 percent, in December to $190.7 billion. Exports of goods increased $4.8 billion and exports of services increased $0.2 billion.

The increase in exports of goods mostly reflected increases in capital goods ($3.3 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion).

The increase in exports of services reflected increases in transport ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares, and in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.1 billion).

Imports of goods and services increased $3.6 billion, or 1.5 percent, in December to $235.0 billion. Imports of goods increased $3.6 billion and imports of services were nearly unchanged.

The increase in imports of goods mostly reflected increases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.6 billion), in industrial supplies and materials ($1.1 billion), and in capital goods ($1.0 billion).
The change in each category for imports of services was less than $0.1 billion.

Of particular note was the geographic breakdown, something Trump will be especially focused on:

The December figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.1), South and Central America ($1.0), Singapore ($0.9), Saudi Arabia ($0.4), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($30.2), European Union ($12.9), Japan ($6.8), Germany ($5.2), Mexico ($4.6), Italy ($2.8), India ($2.0), South Korea ($1.8), Canada ($1.5), Taiwan ($1.0), OPEC ($1.0), France ($0.7), and United Kingdom ($0.2).
The deficit with Canada decreased $1.7 billion to $1.5 billion in December. Exports increased $1.0 billion to $22.4 billion and imports decreased $0.7 billion to $23.8 billion.

The deficit with Mexico decreased $1.2 billion to $4.6 billion in December. Exports increased $1.6 billion to $20.7 billion and imports increased $0.5 billion to $25.2 billion.

That was the good news; the bad news is that for all of 2016, the goods and services deficit was $502.3 billion, up $1.9 billion from $500.4 billion in 2015, and the biggest going back to 2012.

Exports were $2,209.4 billion in 2016, down $51.7 billion from 2015. Imports were $2,711.7 billion in 2016, down $49.9 billion from 2015. In short, a substantial slowdown in trade all around.

The 2016 increase in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $12.5 billion or 1.6 percent to $750.1 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $14.4 billion or 5.5 percent to $247.8 billion.

As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 2.7 percent in 2016, down from 2.8 percent in 2015.

- Source, Zero Hedge

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